Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Yibing Wu vs Mitchell Krueger
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2587e7ea57564e605c6d97e192bf5ce3a5d8ecf495f125c05c896837f697fa11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wuof Wu, Krueger
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Krueger | 10c | 3,117$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.55 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721e…7811backed Wu | 79c | 1,255$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Krueger | 22c | 1,146$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.56 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Krueger | 22c | 499.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…ab4bbacked Krueger | 25c | 391.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Wu | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Krueger | 31c | 349.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Krueger | 22c | 301.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 251 | 34.3%86 W · 165 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…4a3cbacked Wu | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Krueger | 20c | 283$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Wu | 78c | 216$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Krueger | 9c | 158.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Krueger | 14c | 157.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Krueger | 12c | 155.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8e…20c0backed Wu | 77c | 131.58$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Krueger | 17c | 121.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Krueger | 16c | 118.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Krueger | 22c | 114$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Krueger | 23c | 103.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Wu | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Wu | 78c | 88.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Krueger | 23c | 87.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…9c40backed Krueger | 16c | 87.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Wu | 78c | 74.74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Wu | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…161cbacked Wu | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe516…1d31backed Wu | 75c | 54.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 179 | 62.6%112 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b00…cfbdbacked Wu | 78c | 43.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…2b7ebacked Krueger | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…196bbacked Wu | 79c | 30.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…98abbacked Wu | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…92e2backed Wu | 77c | 22.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…7426backed Wu | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…efbbbacked Wu | 76c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 79cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Yibing Wu vs Mitchell Kruegerthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Wu vs KruegerWu won
- Set Handicap: Wu (-1.5) vs Krueger (+1.5)Wu won
- Wu vs. Krueger: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Wu vs. Krueger: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.