MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x259639b0a6074a7a7c347c3a66d86bb4a07b14b6342be29f8e7dc02d307b2c5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 5,145$3,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,914.81 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 4,622$1,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 1,990$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.07 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 73c | 689.1$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.07 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 54c | 414.21$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked San Diego Padres | 27c | 328.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…0d90backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…360ebacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed San Diego Padres | 16c | 248$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 178$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 83.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 77c | 76.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 48.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 46.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 43.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked San Diego Padres | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 42.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2cabbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 28.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 55c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego PadresLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.