Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Oregon State Beavers vs. Oregon Ducks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25cc9363983b618ac089c64f310c7c11e2c38c218e568cb5f1f54422e221c23b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregon Ducksof Oregon State Beavers, Oregon Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Oregon State Beavers | 11c | 2,465$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…7705backed Oregon State Beavers | 13c | 2,125$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Oregon State Beavers | 11c | 1,816$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.43 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…d4ecbacked Oregon State Beavers | 10c | 1,604$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.92 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oregon State Beavers | 8c | 1,336$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Oregon State Beavers | 8c | 1,188$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…fe31backed Oregon State Beavers | 6c | 517.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 95 | 4.2%4 W · 91 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -86%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced3…ce6bbacked Oregon State Beavers | 13c | 406.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Oregon State Beavers | 8c | 307.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Oregon State Beavers | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Oregon State Beavers | 8c | 268.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked Oregon State Beavers | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…6525backed Oregon State Beavers | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 19cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Oregon State Beavers | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Oregon State Beavers | 10c | 195.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97c…a418backed Oregon State Beavers | 6c | 175.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Oregon State Beavers | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…423fbacked Oregon State Beavers | 15c | 94.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…e069backed Oregon State Beavers | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Oregon State Beavers | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Oregon State Beavers | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 80 | 7.5%6 W · 74 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.