NHL · resolved market
AHL: Texas Stars vs. Henderson Silver Knights
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25d57d2c349cd8b78d6619d0dc8ec5252d5038d9869b06ad9e78208e9e253db0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Henderson Silver Knightsof Texas Stars, Henderson Silver Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,211 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Henderson Silver Knights | 57c | 5,380$3,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,303.83 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d98…4d2dbacked Texas Stars | 42c | 1,321$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf642…7353backed Texas Stars | 41c | 853.66$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Texas Stars | 44c | 664.29$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.62 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Henderson Silver Knights | 56c | 516.23$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.06 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x026c…8d76backed Texas Stars | 44c | 477$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.88 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Texas Stars | 45c | 415$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.75 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Texas Stars | 45c | 395.02$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed Texas Stars | 41c | 357.05$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Henderson Silver Knights | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Texas Stars | 42c | 211.17$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Texas Stars | 45c | 211.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Texas Stars | 42c | 199.36$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.53 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Texas Stars | 45c | 155.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Texas Stars | 44c | 149.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 292 | 41.1%120 W · 172 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3afdbacked Texas Stars | 42c | 147.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Henderson Silver Knights | 54c | 136.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Texas Stars | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Texas Stars | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Henderson Silver Knights | 58c | 96.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Henderson Silver Knights | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…3326backed Texas Stars | 41c | 78.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…152abacked Texas Stars | 42c | 71.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Texas Stars | 44c | 61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…4314backed Texas Stars | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…cba7backed Texas Stars | 46c | 59.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…6d7abacked Texas Stars | 42c | 55.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…8cd1backed Texas Stars | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Texas Stars | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Henderson Silver Knights | 53c | 37.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Texas Stars | 44c | 29.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…a253backed Texas Stars | 44c | 23.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Henderson Silver Knights | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.