Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Inner Circle (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25f6856157fbda3903256db27ee3f386e930c7692fd9dfaf1d2a341bbb208c00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVULUSof AVULUS, Inner Circle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Inner Circle | 3c | 1,006$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Inner Circle | 15c | 580.75$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.93 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb88…b1d7backed Inner Circle | 23c | 430.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed AVULUS | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…2b6bbacked AVULUS | 59c | 274.08$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked AVULUS | 79c | 219.72$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Inner Circle | 19c | 203.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Inner Circle | 24c | 126.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Inner Circle | 39c | 125$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd7…6c52backed Inner Circle | 43c | 120$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Inner Circle | 39c | 81.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Inner Circle | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ad…1ab8backed Inner Circle | 38c | 65.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Inner Circle | 20c | 62.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed AVULUS | 79c | 53.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Inner Circle | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…93eabacked Inner Circle | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked AVULUS | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed AVULUS | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338d…6d82backed AVULUS | 61c | 25.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed AVULUS | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed AVULUS | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked AVULUS | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Inner Circle (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Inner Circle - Game 1 WinnerAVULUS won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Inner Circle - Game 2 WinnerAVULUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.