NHL · resolved market
KHL: Severstal Cherepovets vs. Avangard Omsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2627758d9d2aed61ae3103f5fe00f64df89df1e868e57fa7bbc532de2333b0aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Avangard Omskof Severstal Cherepovets, Avangard Omsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,912 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b1…f737backed Severstal Cherepovets | 50c | 683.22$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.78 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Avangard Omsk | 50c | 638.72$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.76 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…bce5backed Avangard Omsk | 51c | 568.27$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.45 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +86%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…ac47backed Severstal Cherepovets | 50c | 326$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…7f28backed Severstal Cherepovets | 49c | 200.79$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Avangard Omsk | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…e998backed Severstal Cherepovets | 49c | 185.48$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…094bbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 58c | 183.55$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1d…32fabacked Severstal Cherepovets | 49c | 182$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Avangard Omsk | 51c | 116.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 181 | 43.1%78 W · 103 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Avangard Omsk | 42c | 102.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Severstal Cherepovets | 60c | 57.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Avangard Omsk | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Severstal Cherepovets | 65c | 47.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…f266backed Avangard Omsk | 55c | 45.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed Avangard Omsk | 51c | 27.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Severstal Cherepovets | 59c | 24.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…76bebacked Severstal Cherepovets | 57c | 24.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…1c9cbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 50c | 24.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 69c | 21.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Avangard Omsk | 54c | 20.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Avangard Omsk | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…6256backed Severstal Cherepovets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.