MLB · resolved market
Tigers vs. Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x264401d9d56b2d5126d4f748385267a4a70aa3c6d12d7167edefa2f67fb9739d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astrosof Tigers, Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb528…5039backed Tigers | 50c | 5,803$2,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,885.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Tigers | 49c | 5,633$2,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,760.17 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Tigers | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Astros | 50c | 4,231$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,116.5 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Astros | 51c | 3,985$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,952.65 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Astros | 51c | 2,917$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.34 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Astros | 51c | 2,911$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.39 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Astros | 51c | 2,160$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.83 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Astros | 31c | 1,831$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.94 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Astros | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Astros | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Astros | 53c | 314.79$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.95 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Tigers | 77c | 300$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Astros | 43c | 225$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.25 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Tigers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tigers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Tigers | 57c | 127$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Astros | 53c | 118.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Astros | 52c | 48.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Tigers | 48c | 40.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Tigers | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Astros | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1528…0c6cbacked Tigers | 48c | 29.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Tigers | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e09…8516backed Astros | 53c | 24.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037d…0d00backed Astros | 53c | 24.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Tigers | 49c | 20.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,086 | 46.2%502 W · 584 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.