NFL · resolved market
Will the Commanders beat the Giants by 4 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x266359577d8a1e26fe8c9242386ff8294d0d1d56675527c3f85267544af410e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Commandersof Commanders, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd398…c487backed Giants | 49c | 9,475$4,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,647.81 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -8.7wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…822ebacked Commanders | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69d…1262backed Giants | 44c | 4,475$1,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,968.81 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…5638backed Commanders | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Giants | 43c | 1,957$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.38 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Commanders | 55c | 1,004$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.96 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Commanders | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf19…4b21backed Commanders | 56c | 427.03$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.89 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed Giants | 40c | 286.52$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.61 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Commanders | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed Giants | 43c | 185.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Commanders | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…535fbacked Commanders | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ab…d820backed Commanders | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…9135backed Commanders | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d51…df73backed Commanders | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x120c…6337backed Commanders | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Giants | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6648…5ba5backed Commanders | 58c | 48.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8b…56d0backed Commanders | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…c737backed Commanders | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…5fd6backed Commanders | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Commanders | 59c | 28.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…3f08backed Commanders | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d7…444abacked Commanders | 58c | 24.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2511…8bc4backed Commanders | 56c | 23.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Commanders beat the Giants by 4 or more points?this page
- Will the Chargers beat the Browns by 3 or more points?Chargers won
- Will the Bengals beat the Raiders by 7 or more points?Bengals won
- Will the Bills beat the Dolphins by 6 or more points?Dolphins won
- Will the Cardinals beat the Bears by 2 or more points?Cardinals won
- Will the Eagles beat the Jaguars by 8 or more points?Jaguars won
- Will the Falcons beat the Cowboys by 4 or more points?Falcons won
- Will the Rams beat the Seahawks by 2 or more points?Rams won
- Will the Saints beat the Panthers by 7 or more points?Panthers won
- Will the Titans beat the Patriots by 4 or more points?Patriots won
- Will the Vikings beat the Colts by 6 or more points?Vikings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.