NFL · resolved market
Will the Bills beat the Dolphins by 6 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ab5723388a73383a435b4527b2f20310f01c51966b8968a0c5a873c7030f7c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dolphinsof Bills, Dolphins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Dolphins | 42c | 8,039$3,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,647.21 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…822ebacked Bills | 60c | 2,789$1,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.66 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…5638backed Bills | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Bills | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Bills | 56c | 1,000$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.4 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69d…1262backed Dolphins | 43c | 666.49$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.9 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Bills | 57c | 440.35$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Bills | 57c | 326.14$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.9 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Bills | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…da3cbacked Bills | 45c | 215$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4000…df60backed Bills | 60c | 214.55$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…d295backed Bills | 60c | 201.33$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed Dolphins | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Dolphins | 55c | 185$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…535fbacked Bills | 59c | 76.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d51…df73backed Bills | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ab…d820backed Bills | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa45…0eb0backed Bills | 56c | 59.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…5ab3backed Bills | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…2a31backed Bills | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6648…5ba5backed Bills | 60c | 46.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Bills | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8b…56d0backed Bills | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…c737backed Bills | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…c768backed Bills | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…e90dbacked Bills | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x120c…6337backed Bills | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Bills | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Bills | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bills beat the Dolphins by 6 or more points?this page
- Will the Chargers beat the Browns by 3 or more points?Chargers won
- Will the Bengals beat the Raiders by 7 or more points?Bengals won
- Will the Cardinals beat the Bears by 2 or more points?Cardinals won
- Will the Commanders beat the Giants by 4 or more points?Commanders won
- Will the Eagles beat the Jaguars by 8 or more points?Jaguars won
- Will the Falcons beat the Cowboys by 4 or more points?Falcons won
- Will the Rams beat the Seahawks by 2 or more points?Rams won
- Will the Saints beat the Panthers by 7 or more points?Panthers won
- Will the Titans beat the Patriots by 4 or more points?Patriots won
- Will the Vikings beat the Colts by 6 or more points?Vikings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.