Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-09-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26721a3228876ab9a5f4e38bf20dffd3917c983ec3082256be0cae1b0b461f64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2131…aaf2backed Yes | 44c | 101,273$44,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,160.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…5408backed No | 58c | 40,000$23,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,800 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 56c | 39,437$22,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,352.08 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 57c | 10,591$6,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,552.09 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 56c | 9,871$5,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,336.65 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 39c | 2,774$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.65 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 42c | 1,365$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.16 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 56c | 1,335$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.43 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,232$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 56c | 1,125$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 58c | 1,099$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.81 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 59c | 840$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.4 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 56c | 745$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked No | 56c | 479.68$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 62c | 464.96$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.76 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 41c | 413.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.62 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 65c | 398$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.73 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 42c | 392.86$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…71fdbacked Yes | 44c | 343.27$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 43c | 303$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.29 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 57c | 299.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 58c | 177.66$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 73c | 174$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +17.9wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…4ebabacked No | 58c | 170.86$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 41c | 153.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…10ebbacked Yes | 38c | 149.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked Yes | 44c | 116.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 58c | 92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c53…0991backed Yes | 39c | 67.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 59c | 66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed Yes | 42c | 63.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9486…eecdbacked No | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…c3bbbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…3e6dbacked Yes | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x484f…28cbbacked No | 60c | 23.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked No | 66c | 15.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-09-21?this page
- Will AJ Auxerre vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?No won
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-09-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.