Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will AJ Auxerre vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01b207cfa4505001017bf39803424a3d1edf9b146c33aeb09bf943eb7180ec2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,031$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.99 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 71c | 983$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.07 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 78c | 510.85$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.04 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0801…35cbbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 69c | 184.57$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 70c | 156.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 31c | 48.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ca96backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 72c | 17.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AJ Auxerre vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?this page
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-09-21?Yes won
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-09-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.