Other European Leagues · resolved market
AVS Futebol vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x268f21839138cc9a49795effdb3604ffa0c41278c14499e6f1c7fa569ab304e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 1,041$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.22 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 615.14$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.08 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 19c | 588$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.72 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5f…8a9bbacked Over | 44c | 460$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 45c | 322.22$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Over | 32c | 300$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 58c | 292.83$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.32 | 387 | 47.5%184 W · 203 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 30c | 245$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 4c | 238.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 219.34$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 45c | 193.33$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 266 | 53.4%142 W · 124 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8750…0841backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 26c | 150.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.39 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 63c | 139.08$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 68.8%99 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 29c | 125$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.49 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 27c | 124.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 30%27 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 40c | 72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 45c | 68.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 62c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 40c | 59.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 46c | 56.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Over | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 69c | 31.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…fcd2backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 46c | 27.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 77c | 14.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 283 | 49.1%139 W · 144 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AVS Futebol vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 1.5this page
- AVS Futebol vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AVS Futebol vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5Under won
- AVS Futebol vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 3.5Under won
- AVS Futebol vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AVS Futebol (-2.5)CF Estrela da Amadora won
- Spread: CF Estrela da Amadora (-2.5)AVS Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.