Us Politics · resolved market
Hunter Biden in jail before election day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26c0b0cbc44517dfc8ad8c750ee24e048e5ca733155515c0ac4bce686317bbb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71e5…50a4backed Yes | 3c | 4,312$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 3c | 2,369$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -65%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 5c | 2,217$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.72 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bf…e42ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 7c | 1,014$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -93.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 949.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2f…8ecfbacked Yes | 2c | 905.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 2c | 840$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +107%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b1…fdc4backed Yes | 8c | 783.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6930…b8f5backed Yes | 2c | 724.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e41…cf4dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…8a7fbacked Yes | 3c | 492.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c2…4c94backed Yes | 8c | 399.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes | 6c | 250.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4c…827cbacked Yes | 7c | 240$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.