Mls · resolved market
Will Austin FC win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26d5fbadd48baa31333b6db2a436a91e43757f88a085f4570524f276f0cd67bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 64c | 50,826$32,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,716.86 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 37c | 39,081$14,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,560.86 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 40c | 6,396$2,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,851.85 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 36c | 2,983$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,922.59 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 36c | 2,779$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,787.33 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 35c | 901.08$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.7 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 46c | 692$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.32 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 21c | 595.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked Yes | 2c | 521.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked No | 24c | 498.04$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.51 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 39c | 489$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.55 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 36c | 381$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.22 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Yes | 32c | 309.38$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 78c | 301$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 68c | 272.76$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Yes | 63c | 250$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.1 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 52c | 215$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.68 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x979a…468cbacked No | 29c | 125.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 42c | 111.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 64c | 87.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 16c | 83.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked No | 59c | 65.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 58c | 60.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…e27abacked Yes | 65c | 45.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 65c | 34.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 80c | 32.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…dea4backed No | 57c | 28.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 39c | 26.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…a7ecbacked Yes | 76c | 26.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 59c | 22.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 60c | 18.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will Austin FC vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-02-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.