Mls · resolved market
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x195f1530fb402a3a9055e6b3fa3f9720e131ab3432d49b1af222c237318d4138
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 16c | 3,871$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.6 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 22c | 872.15$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.49 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 17c | 492.79$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.66 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 25c | 270.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 232.49$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 31c | 225.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 77c | 220$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 28c | 171.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes | 31c | 162$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 151.71$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 13c | 121$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 32c | 107.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 13c | 93.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 32c | 60.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…63f1backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 28c | 47.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 66c | 18.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will Austin FC vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-02-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.