Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26d7385802dfabd663bb0a867035b7c087872b1ea43f093fe0b74365e0709155
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Xtreme Gaming, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $977 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b85…f739backed Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 189.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Nemesis | 47c | 134.09$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Nemesis | 52c | 133.12$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…706cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 48c | 133.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Nemesis | 47c | 132.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Team Nemesis | 49c | 99.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…2d98backed Xtreme Gaming | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4e…36cdbacked Xtreme Gaming | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.