South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Estudiantes vs. CA River Plate end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26f02995b3269e30da6e40894139482a4ec78459f59d4c350491c575f77fc46a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,636 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 28c | 5,000$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.49 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed No | 71c | 1,684$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.29 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 12c | 1,239$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.57 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 72c | 1,046$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.88 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 822.49$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.9 | 3,446 | 51.4%1,771 W · 1,675 L | +21.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x333b…c557backed Yes | 8c | 599.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 72c | 559.6$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.69 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…7cf6backed Yes | 13c | 344$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 11c | 187.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 3,807 | 38.4%1,463 W · 2,344 L | -29.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 72c | 180$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed No | 72c | 154.57$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac90…b414backed Yes | 28c | 124$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Yes | 42c | 123.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed No | 72c | 114.53$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 38c | 111.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 502 | 35.5%178 W · 324 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked No | 58c | 94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…b8d6backed Yes | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 72c | 77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 72c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1,442 | 51.9%748 W · 694 L | +23.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…d7ecbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e77…198dbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 70c | 49.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 1,465 | 56.8%832 W · 633 L | +55.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…d839backed No | 73c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Yes | 38c | 40.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 66c | 33.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2,648 | 54.2%1,436 W · 1,212 L | +27.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 61c | 32.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked No | 61c | 30.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 175 | 60.6%106 W · 69 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7611…1261backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 50c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…b12cbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f23…6d15backed No | 72c | 13.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Estudiantes vs. CA River Plate end in a draw?this page
- Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-03-22?No won
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-03-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.