South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x270e49036c5f2ed072c9680ec14a5a3e25a104d08e7074716c57cee1b115b50b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 20c | 2,116$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.86 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed No | 19c | 1,091$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.13 | 146 | 30.8%45 W · 101 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 80c | 540$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 78c | 478.25$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.21 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…f06fbacked No | 18c | 377.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Yes | 80c | 352.5$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 75 | 72%54 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 18c | 221.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 78c | 201.77$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 19c | 142$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 16c | 141.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 19c | 135.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…7bc9backed Yes | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed No | 18c | 113.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed No | 21c | 105.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked No | 19c | 94.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…7ce1backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 18c | 82.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 130 | 62.3%81 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8156…27c2backed Yes | 78c | 80.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45f…f4d8backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd70…db6bbacked Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e5…1f13backed Yes | 80c | 20.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…557fbacked Yes | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-30?this page
- Will LDU de Quito win on 2025-10-30?No won
- Will SE Palmeiras vs. LDU de Quito end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.