TailMyPicks
Market

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: South America Rejects vs 1win - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
South America Rejectsof South America Rejects, 1win
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,300

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,499 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x26f8…3452backed South America Rejects72c8,567$6,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,398.7415457.1%88 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed 1win27c2,282$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.7626550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x810b…0848backed 1win28c2,099$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.1313144.3%58 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win28c1,498$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.362,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked 1win28c1,275$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.9867043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked South America Rejects71c911.44$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.9696645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked 1win44c654.64$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9729240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef18…ea40backed 1win10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503925.6%10 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked 1win27c478.1$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0946240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed 1win25c385.64$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3846649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked 1win32c290.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3915342.5%65 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c35…0ea1backed 1win28c269.95$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+49.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked 1win28c254.27$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.661,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked 1win37c242.23$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.091,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked South America Rejects67c190.19$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.762065%13 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4d5…26eabacked 1win43c165.81$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.531145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed 1win13c163.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.31,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked 1win8c136.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.895841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…8d97backed South America Rejects75c131.08$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.575759.6%34 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11ea…594fbacked 1win38c111.35$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0915942.8%68 W · 91 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked 1win24c104.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1995342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed South America Rejects67c92.11$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8350444%222 W · 282 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked South America Rejects72c73.74$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6558250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked South America Rejects70c58.91$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4212263.9%78 W · 44 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked South America Rejects71c54.03$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8119951.8%103 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed 1win33c53.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5425253.2%134 W · 118 L+20.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked South America Rejects67c50.78$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9113850%69 W · 69 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed South America Rejects62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed South America Rejects62c49.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked 1win28c47.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.464123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…7f72backed South America Rejects62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8384…ddd0backed South America Rejects79c27.42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.761668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed South America Rejects80c27.15$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4943067%288 W · 142 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked South America Rejects56c25.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.261,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed South America Rejects70c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.592561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.