Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs 1win - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2725e765af53521087ab648dfb062eb9b4cea72af9e3650c98b181090108bd78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- South America Rejectsof South America Rejects, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26f8…3452backed South America Rejects | 72c | 8,567$6,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,398.74 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed 1win | 27c | 2,282$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.76 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…0848backed 1win | 28c | 2,099$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.13 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 28c | 1,498$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.36 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked 1win | 28c | 1,275$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.98 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked South America Rejects | 71c | 911.44$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.96 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked 1win | 44c | 654.64$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.97 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…ea40backed 1win | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked 1win | 27c | 478.1$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.09 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed 1win | 25c | 385.64$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked 1win | 32c | 290.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.39 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…0ea1backed 1win | 28c | 269.95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 1win | 28c | 254.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked 1win | 37c | 242.23$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.09 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked South America Rejects | 67c | 190.19$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…26eabacked 1win | 43c | 165.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed 1win | 13c | 163.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked 1win | 8c | 136.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…8d97backed South America Rejects | 75c | 131.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…594fbacked 1win | 38c | 111.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked 1win | 24c | 104.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed South America Rejects | 67c | 92.11$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked South America Rejects | 72c | 73.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked South America Rejects | 70c | 58.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked South America Rejects | 71c | 54.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed 1win | 33c | 53.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked South America Rejects | 67c | 50.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed South America Rejects | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed South America Rejects | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked 1win | 28c | 47.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed South America Rejects | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8384…ddd0backed South America Rejects | 79c | 27.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed South America Rejects | 80c | 27.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked South America Rejects | 56c | 25.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed South America Rejects | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs 1win - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs1win won
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs 1win - Game 1 Winner1win won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.