Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs 1win - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c7e4585cf2bf3adb304cd9b86849795405ea06aa67a6128d2e9807edf23eeb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof South America Rejects, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked 1win | 40c | 2,359$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.63 | 1,179 | 43.1%508 W · 671 L | +41.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked South America Rejects | 50c | 991.99$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc386…386fbacked 1win | 12c | 731.94$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.15 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked South America Rejects | 67c | 589.12$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked South America Rejects | 74c | 547.89$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked 1win | 21c | 468.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.81 | 200 | 43.5%87 W · 113 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed South America Rejects | 69c | 345.64$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.91 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked 1win | 52c | 278.47$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 772 | 58.5%452 W · 320 L | +74.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked 1win | 30c | 254.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.49 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed South America Rejects | 40c | 241.47$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 305 | 34.4%105 W · 200 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked South America Rejects | 77c | 211.02$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.48 | 1,894 | 47.7%903 W · 991 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed South America Rejects | 53c | 153.08$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.58 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed South America Rejects | 72c | 137.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked 1win | 30c | 134.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.68 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked 1win | 30c | 130$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…594fbacked South America Rejects | 56c | 125.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed 1win | 17c | 120$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed South America Rejects | 77c | 73.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 1,255 | 49.6%623 W · 632 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked 1win | 17c | 70.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 1,270 | 45.1%573 W · 697 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed South America Rejects | 46c | 68.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked South America Rejects | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 545 | 48.4%264 W · 281 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed South America Rejects | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed South America Rejects | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 42c | 44.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked 1win | 67c | 43.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed South America Rejects | 63c | 39.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae9…14a8backed South America Rejects | 73c | 31.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked South America Rejects | 68c | 29.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed South America Rejects | 66c | 21.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs 1win - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs1win won
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs 1win - Game 2 WinnerSouth America Rejects won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.