Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71-72°F on October 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x275b3c45d0cfec93ae6134b2df0ac984e55836a396917d0acf416c759d09dd04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 619.05$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.21 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 64c | 249.81$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33e9…b638backed Yes | 14c | 208.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 26c | 206.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe44…3b76backed Yes | 26c | 188.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 73c | 163.5$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd79f…2fecbacked Yes | 72c | 139.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefa6…d493backed Yes | 33c | 130$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 9c | 126.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 71.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…41eebacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3631…1db1backed Yes | 40c | 57.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…fd9abacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 50c | 48.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x446c…f245backed Yes | 30c | 41.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c58…1a15backed Yes | 49c | 36.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…63a2backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe346…2ad2backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1402…0f59backed Yes | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ca…8903backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2d…d8adbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…cdd7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 75c | 13.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71-72°F on October 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or below on October 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or higher on October 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67-68°F on October 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69-70°F on October 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 73-74°F on October 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on October 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.