Mls · resolved market
Atlanta United FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x277467d2447c8b42ff50e15b3b7c22a80c1ba4da09994e20f27062c0296bbd0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,781 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 3,133$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.22 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…5804backed Over | 50c | 2,344$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 46c | 2,116$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.53 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 58c | 1,011$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.24 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 55c | 708.07$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.79 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 40c | 660.51$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.47 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 77c | 518.75$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 54c | 375.13$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.42 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 25c | 347.3$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.48 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 29c | 346.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 59c | 320$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.72 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 38c | 300$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 195.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.84 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 23c | 189.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.76 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 52c | 186.76$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.91 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…0161backed Over | 67c | 160.98$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 78c | 113.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 58c | 86.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 14c | 79.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 76c | 79.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -6.6wins | -0.15per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…f3c4backed Over | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d3…0a3ebacked Under | 34c | 55.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…aeaabacked Over | 77c | 23.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Over | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 75c | 13.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta United FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5this page
- Atlanta United FC vs. D.C. United SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Atlanta United FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Atlanta United FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta United FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.