Fifa International · resolved market
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Portugal?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2774f2e52b5e129af3683ab3447e21accaa02111082a4131c8da5f12896c564f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 29,361$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed Yes | 13c | 2,144$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.7 | 950 | 37.5%356 W · 594 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…ef96backed Yes | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Yes | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d7…cc8fbacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e51…92bfbacked Yes | 13c | 461.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…3c9dbacked Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 13c | 396$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba19…b39dbacked Yes | 13c | 372.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…fa46backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…3f71backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 19.6%44 W · 180 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3527…4cc5backed Yes | 15c | 175.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d3…c92fbacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…9a3ebacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 300 | 32.3%97 W · 203 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf966…bb42backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Uzbekistan to score first vs. Portugal?this page
- Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan?Yes won
- Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Neither team to score first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.