Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs. Team Liquid
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27a3d066a3bad04f2179397d2be64f0e378fa30ff94aea3ddebfea727b43e740
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Nigma Galaxy, Team Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6304…e570backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 5,200$1,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.92 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7116…b487backed Team Liquid | 40c | 3,709$1,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,235.4 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…aaf2backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 3,372$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Team Liquid | 65c | 2,669$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.47 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 1,529$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.21 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0f…23b1backed Team Liquid | 51c | 1,065$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.02 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Liquid | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…0151backed Team Liquid | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Team Liquid | 62c | 990$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.2 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a2…e231backed Team Liquid | 39c | 707.47$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.63 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Team Liquid | 65c | 655.56$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…413abacked Team Liquid | 66c | 555.44$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…4bf1backed Team Liquid | 65c | 538.46$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 496.52$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.13 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Nigma Galaxy | 42c | 435$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.7 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x538e…c195backed Team Liquid | 63c | 355.8$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.97 | 129 | 66.7%86 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Team Liquid | 65c | 355$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.25 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nigma Galaxy | 10c | 285$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…5adbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 280$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Team Liquid | 55c | 260$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.17 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed Team Liquid | 61c | 240$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 225$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2729…e171backed Nigma Galaxy | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Nigma Galaxy | 15c | 186.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 162 | 32.7%53 W · 109 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Team Liquid | 38c | 183$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Team Liquid | 65c | 174$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Team Liquid | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c3…ba20backed Nigma Galaxy | 31c | 68.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3557…4596backed Team Liquid | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…49e4backed Nigma Galaxy | 24c | 50.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Team Liquid | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec91…96ffbacked Team Liquid | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaca…51d1backed Team Liquid | 64c | 20.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.