South American Leagues · resolved market
Cruzeiro EC vs. CD Universidad Católica: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27a50555cde8699ba158dbc775d09b73e42b6b0d179b84a3c8e63a444f7f24ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 72c | 1,003$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 30c | 965.02$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.91 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…04a7backed Yes | 71c | 695.08$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9959…c137backed No | 36c | 200.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 53c | 160.93$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.82 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed No | 29c | 140.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…9732backed Yes | 48c | 131.19$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.22 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Yes | 77c | 89.65$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 37c | 87.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…f2b7backed Yes | 44c | 67.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 43c | 56.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 172 | 61%105 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 41c | 44.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 56c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…21a5backed Yes | 61c | 21.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cruzeiro EC vs. CD Universidad Católica: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Cruzeiro EC vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CD Universidad Católica (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)CD Universidad Católica won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)CD Universidad Católica won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.