Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27e9bcca2ba3f6a23fdb0207d56d5b076a839d1f200e1f32018516d300e8e117
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc537…f385backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 1cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 62c | 183.21$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 26c | 177.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 63c | 124.14$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2aa…586fbacked No | 37c | 121.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed Yes | 63c | 117.52$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 61c | 91.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 39c | 71.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a8…84bcbacked Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed No | 35c | 63.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 70c | 60.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…a2fdbacked No | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 58c | 49.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 65c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…7b79backed Yes | 67c | 43.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…516bbacked No | 50c | 42.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 41.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…c804backed No | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 46c | 38.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 75c | 37.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 66c | 37.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed Yes | 70c | 28.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…a818backed No | 36c | 28.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed Yes | 71c | 26.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 65c | 26.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2827backed Yes | 61c | 22.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…8628backed No | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…fb99backed Yes | 61c | 16.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.