Bundesliga · resolved market
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x280692528309807c642fd3c454804e96d1995f67f687925318f0e79f00202bef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 60c | 2,496$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.15 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 61c | 1,481$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.82 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 39c | 1,151$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.82 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 608.16$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.49 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…fc20backed Over | 77c | 451.33$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.29 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 60c | 185$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 60c | 164.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…08f1backed Under | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | +11.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 126 | 57.9%73 W · 53 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…07f2backed Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 41c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 60c | 57.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 58c | 56.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 42c | 56.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 40c | 55.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Under | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Over | 59c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 40c | 26.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Over | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5this page
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.