College Football · resolved market
Georgia State vs. Old Dominion
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x281eb4b2e3500a9f083bec7f2d0f24a7e523ed0663e82976ed4eeb4bbec06022
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Old Dominionof Georgia State, Old Dominion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f3d…fadabacked Georgia State | 0c | 54,150$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Georgia State | 11c | 2,849$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.35 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Georgia State | 13c | 2,746$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.46 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Georgia State | 14c | 2,013$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.93 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Georgia State | 5c | 1,800$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Georgia State | 2c | 1,597$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Georgia State | 5c | 1,200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…620abacked Georgia State | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Georgia State | 4c | 999.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Georgia State | 18c | 954$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.88 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Georgia State | 3c | 932.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Georgia State | 2c | 905.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 134 | 17.2%23 W · 111 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…8078backed Georgia State | 5c | 840.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Georgia State | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…6a10backed Georgia State | 13c | 583.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Georgia State | 4c | 411.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Georgia State | 5c | 391.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Georgia State | 26c | 331$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Georgia State | 10c | 208$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Georgia State | 5c | 201.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Georgia State | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Georgia State | 15c | 121.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0b…7124backed Georgia State | 24c | 57.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Georgia State vs. Old Dominionthis page
- Georgia State vs. Old Dominion: O/U 58.5Under won
- Spread: Old Dominion (-27.5)Georgia State won
- Spread: Old Dominion (-28.5)Georgia State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.