Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Ball State Cardinals (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x283b233edd1955ab361ae43d0a57714d7a9e829be75f7b7c22c20b7d381306e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ball State Cardinalsof Ball State Cardinals, Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | 49c | 518.53$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.08 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ball State Cardinals | 51c | 513.53$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.63 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | 48c | 147$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Ball State Cardinals | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Ball State Cardinals | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Ball State Cardinals | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +6.9wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Ball State Cardinals | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Ball State Cardinals | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed Ball State Cardinals | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Ball State Cardinals | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ball State Cardinals (-4.5)this page
- Ball State Cardinals vs. Louisiana-Monroe WarhawksBall State Cardinals won
- Ball State Cardinals vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: O/U 140.5Over won
- Ball State Cardinals vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: O/U 141.5Under won
- Ball State Cardinals vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: O/U 142.5Under won
- Spread: Ball State Cardinals (-3.5)Ball State Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.