Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Ball State Cardinals vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: O/U 142.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4b5b88d841da0f0eedd2ce7bf12ea185d55281376d96d2fed5278fcb5d44046
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Over | 50c | 42,206$21,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,075.67 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 23,627$11,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,311.32 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Under | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Under | 49c | 7,500$3,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,825 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…0f7abacked Under | 51c | 7,418$3,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,634.91 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 47c | 6,000$2,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,180 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ea…0637backed Under | 46c | 4,293$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,318.07 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Under | 48c | 4,167$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,166.67 | 212 | 48.1%102 W · 110 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Over | 50c | 3,886$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.25 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Over | 52c | 2,538$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.89 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…2682backed Over | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 48c | 973.46$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.2 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Under | 47c | 937.74$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Over | 52c | 499.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked Under | 46c | 402.17$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.17 | 267 | 49.1%131 W · 136 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 48c | 400$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Under | 50c | 210.94$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 45c | 183$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Under | 50c | 145$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Under | 51c | 139.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Under | 48c | 49.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 49c | 45.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ball State Cardinals vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: O/U 142.5this page
- Ball State Cardinals vs. Louisiana-Monroe WarhawksBall State Cardinals won
- Ball State Cardinals vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: O/U 140.5Over won
- Ball State Cardinals vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: O/U 141.5Under won
- Spread: Ball State Cardinals (-3.5)Ball State Cardinals won
- Spread: Ball State Cardinals (-4.5)Ball State Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.