TailMyPicks

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Olympics · resolved market

Will Voetter/Oberhofer (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Luge - Women's Doubles at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,342
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,763

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,342 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x05f0…2469backed Yes54c204$111 inWon+$93.032259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+42.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Yes48c136.66$65 inWon+$71.363262.5%20 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No39c129.86$50 inLost-$50.3411858.5%69 W · 49 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x154e…911fbacked No50c100$50 inLost-$502766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes52c84.49$44 inWon+$40.563132.3%10 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes50c68.06$34 inWon+$34.26123%14 W · 47 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6470…aac7backed Yes36c35$13 inWon+$22.41560%9 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b4…2cd7backed Yes51c28.3$14 inWon+$13.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.