Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Magdeburg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x286a415cc0c836133e962500441ac8428d61732e1a8841c5c0700c144dfefe35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 46c | 7,069$3,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,848.49 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 4,299$2,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,317.23 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 54c | 3,273$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.68 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 651.63$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.58 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 65c | 602.23$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.16 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 64c | 397.95$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.69 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 41c | 363.6$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.25 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Over | 49c | 354.76$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.93 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Under | 30c | 332.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…6213backed Over | 55c | 282.21$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 69c | 275.36$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 39c | 227.2$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.59 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +12.1wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +73%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 35c | 180.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…41cbbacked Over | 41c | 178.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…d6edbacked Over | 65c | 113.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 68c | 93.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…460cbacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 45c | 85.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Over | 42c | 84.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 48c | 70.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 41c | 66.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 52c | 52.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 57c | 49.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed Under | 71c | 46.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 69c | 46.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 55c | 45.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 58c | 43.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 54c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 57c | 41.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Under | 54c | 40.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 54c | 35.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 51c | 32.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 41c | 32.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 46c | 29.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 53c | 25.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Magdeburg (-1.5)Karlsruher SC won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-1.5)Karlsruher SC won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-2.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.