Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Magdeburg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51bf5c4408f0bd044241ddd22770b1d799fe8e5eb99bd766ec3e27ce5d80b03e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 840.64$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.78 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 42c | 807$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.76 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 34c | 504.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.7 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 75c | 354.86$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.96 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 33c | 346.51$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.84 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 258.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4c…cec8backed Over | 67c | 226.12$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 32c | 201.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 32c | 98.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…9b2bbacked Under | 33c | 78.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d2…a07abacked Under | 33c | 76.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 73.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…a3b9backed Under | 33c | 72.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 53c | 66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…a5ccbacked Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…bc76backed Over | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 68c | 15.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Over | 80c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Magdeburg (-1.5)Karlsruher SC won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-1.5)Karlsruher SC won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-2.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.