MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x288f5701ccdbdbd32003ee6404d7f47f5415785e2626e676754ea76af126a976
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 56c | 1,883$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.33 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 46c | 1,742$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.95 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…672abacked Under | 55c | 1,362$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.99 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x202f…7b58backed Over | 44c | 1,201$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Over | 45c | 1,100$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 688.35$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.86 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 42c | 527.59$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.43 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2f…aaf8backed Over | 43c | 383.88$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.02 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 57c | 311.06$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.76 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 290.11$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.55 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 34c | 269.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Under | 65c | 256.12$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.69 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 43c | 197.55$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6c…0b46backed Over | 43c | 186$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 143.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 79c | 137.71$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 58c | 122.69$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 47c | 56.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 57c | 37.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 43c | 36.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a7…e397backed Under | 79c | 31.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 76c | 28.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Under | 69c | 27.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 56c | 26.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis CardinalsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.