Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28b5617fcbfbf48939c6a2fc7b95ea94fdb98d71a7e49fdb423780546f564fcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Up | 69c | 7,051$4,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,164.6 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 55c | 3,041$1,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.61 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Down | 5c | 2,622$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.84 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 36c | 2,246$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.44 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe159…d6d6backed Down | 5c | 2,034$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…8022backed Down | 72c | 1,521$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.03 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…551fbacked Down | 65c | 1,444$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.79 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 32c | 1,395$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.92 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Up | 43c | 1,287$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.01 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Down | 31c | 665.48$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.81 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6cea…a3e7backed Up | 41c | 649.83$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +160.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Up | 41c | 610.06$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.06 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Up | 36c | 453.89$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.84 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…dacabacked Down | 21c | 405.01$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 47c | 400$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Down | 66c | 381.32$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.54 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…b5dfbacked Up | 80c | 377.62$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Down | 19c | 234.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…6d06backed Up | 30c | 233.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.69 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…03ddbacked Down | 45c | 216.29$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 44c | 211.54$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed Up | 26c | 210$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a1bebacked Up | 47c | 207.3$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Up | 35c | 203.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.98 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Down | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Down | 60c | 168.86$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82af…f7d1backed Down | 38c | 156.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…891ebacked Down | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Up | 38c | 140.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.21 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -18.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down | 67c | 140$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Up | 24c | 128.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Up | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6384backed Down | 70c | 105$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Up | 42c | 85.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b0…444ebacked Down | 64c | 83.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02fa…d979backed Down | 19c | 79.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 24c | 76.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Down | 53c | 56.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…389abacked Up | 39c | 54.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Down | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed Up | 47c | 37.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed Down | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…8deabacked Down | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.