Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Belmont Bruins (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28de707f515c81a260e1f4e39bb044366f91a5cccc02e33ae42baf07dd20f56a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northern Iowa Panthersof Belmont Bruins, Northern Iowa Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Northern Iowa Panthers | 56c | 3,564$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.87 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Belmont Bruins | 44c | 2,610$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.91 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Northern Iowa Panthers | 56c | 800$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.82 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Belmont Bruins | 46c | 399.99$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Belmont Bruins | 44c | 391$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.02 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Belmont Bruins | 47c | 340$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Belmont Bruins | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Belmont Bruins | 44c | 193$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Belmont Bruins | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Northern Iowa Panthers | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Belmont Bruins | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Northern Iowa Panthers | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Belmont Bruins | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 191 | 38.2%73 W · 118 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Belmont Bruins (-5.5)this page
- Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Belmont BruinsBelmont Bruins won
- Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Belmont Bruins: O/U 137.5Over won
- Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Belmont Bruins: O/U 139.5Over won
- Spread: Belmont Bruins (-4.5)Belmont Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.