Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28e24eae304147e39058356ea4b5ae571f25dc4b534289df67453c2e4fa2eb35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x622f…9992backed No | 65c | 1,431$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.53 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed Yes | 45c | 1,109$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…51ebbacked Yes | 1c | 999.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd142…b993backed Yes | 5c | 346.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 29c | 194.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…1fb2backed No | 77c | 133.65$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 37c | 116.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…6851backed No | 73c | 101.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 848 | 46%390 W · 458 L | +51.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…e179backed Yes | 43c | 79.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 64c | 53.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Yes | 35c | 37.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd4…65d8backed Yes | 45c | 31.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 78c | 27.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 58c | 22.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…c796backed No | 65c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on April 15?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on April 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.