Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x294d39bd38e86344966cf2ff1c36329116cc191e1cd2e4275304f64e37ef95b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof Aurora, Inner Circle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9942…f1abbacked Aurora | 2c | 4,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…ca20backed Aurora | 65c | 3,174$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,059.98 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Inner Circle | 60c | 1,885$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.7 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Inner Circle | 36c | 1,127$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.23 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…b0a7backed Inner Circle | 32c | 1,096$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.26 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Inner Circle | 38c | 969.16$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.42 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a8…68ebbacked Inner Circle | 56c | 766$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Aurora | 62c | 700$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.46 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 22c | 690.66$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.28 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Inner Circle | 37c | 578.38$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.38 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Inner Circle | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.54 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Aurora | 11c | 280.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Inner Circle | 48c | 222.43$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.66 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…c25fbacked Aurora | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…68b3backed Aurora | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Inner Circle | 52c | 119.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Inner Circle | 47c | 117.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891c…ef89backed Aurora | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…c7edbacked Aurora | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Inner Circle | 48c | 93.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Inner Circle | 54c | 85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Aurora | 65c | 64.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…a27cbacked Inner Circle | 36c | 54.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2811…13cdbacked Aurora | 43c | 54.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Aurora | 46c | 43.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Aurora | 72c | 35.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ed…50efbacked Aurora | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Inner Circle (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsInner Circle won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Inner Circle - Game 1 WinnerInner Circle won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.