Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Inner Circle (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8edad458feaaf1be8e37ba01c1737ee48ccef5b74bd7179ac6950f40e6f86b1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof Aurora, Inner Circle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Aurora | 0c | 12,729$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 8c | 4,048$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.48 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Inner Circle | 62c | 1,858$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.39 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…ca20backed Aurora | 42c | 1,313$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.25 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae17…b10dbacked Inner Circle | 51c | 776.77$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.77 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Aurora | 55c | 723.75$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Inner Circle | 15c | 612.5$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Inner Circle | 43c | 589.54$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.51 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Inner Circle | 58c | 582.23$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.23 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Aurora | 7c | 429.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 56 | 1.8%1 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…ba9ebacked Inner Circle | 53c | 378.87$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.07 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851e…05adbacked Aurora | 56c | 355.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…06d5backed Inner Circle | 68c | 205.88$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd75…1d27backed Inner Circle | 68c | 195.69$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…9f77backed Inner Circle | 51c | 194.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.34 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Aurora | 11c | 186.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Inner Circle | 60c | 180$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Inner Circle | 56c | 178.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7a…a1f2backed Inner Circle | 55c | 140$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9380…a275backed Inner Circle | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730e…fca0backed Aurora | 24c | 109.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…899bbacked Inner Circle | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Inner Circle | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Aurora | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cc…f9c0backed Inner Circle | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa134…3ba2backed Aurora | 57c | 88.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Aurora | 55c | 87.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Inner Circle | 53c | 80.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…93eabacked Aurora | 53c | 75.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Aurora | 49c | 72.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…9d85backed Aurora | 49c | 68.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…807fbacked Aurora | 40c | 52.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Inner Circle | 68c | 44.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b94…709abacked Inner Circle | 58c | 43.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…7954backed Inner Circle | 67c | 43.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Aurora | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb50f…c837backed Inner Circle | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87df…48f3backed Inner Circle | 71c | 34.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Inner Circle | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…83babacked Inner Circle | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Aurora | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccef…7c90backed Inner Circle | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…1249backed Aurora | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 173 | 60.7%105 W · 68 L | -13.6wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Inner Circle (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Inner Circle - Game 1 WinnerInner Circle won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Inner Circle - Game 2 WinnerInner Circle won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.