Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will Michigan State advance to the Quarterfinals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2989038df275f8b6edaea1a12bd97b12197d82895114d5b65133dafa0f7ea999
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a47…fcf3backed No | 69c | 482.53$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.51 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 30c | 260$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 57c | 74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 43c | 74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 33c | 67.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 63c | 52.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed No | 80c | 26.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f98…a605backed No | 73c | 23.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c69…b190backed Yes | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 66c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michigan State advance to the Quarterfinals?this page
- Will Alabama advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
- Will Arizona advance to the Quarterfinals?Yes won
- Will Arkansas advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
- Will BYU advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
- Will Duke advance to the Quarterfinals?Yes won
- Will Florida advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
- Will Gonzaga advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
- Will Houston advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
- Will Illinois advance to the Quarterfinals?Yes won
- Will Iowa State advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
- Will Iowa advance to the Quarterfinals?Yes won
- Will Kansas advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
- Will Kentucky advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
- Will LIU advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
- Will Miami (FL) advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
- Will Michigan advance to the Quarterfinals?Yes won
- Will Nebraska advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
- Will Purdue advance to the Quarterfinals?Yes won
- Will Saint Louis advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
- Will Santa Clara advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
- Will Tennessee advance to the Quarterfinals?Yes won
- Will Texas Tech advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
- Will Texas advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
- Will UCLA advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
- Will UConn advance to the Quarterfinals?Yes won
- Will Vanderbilt advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
- Will Virginia advance to the Quarterfinals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.