TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will Iowa State advance to the Quarterfinals?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,831
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,749

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,831 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8349…7c12backed Yes62c1,806$1,120 inLost-$1,119.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb97…9f9abacked No38c1,617$614 inWon+$1,002.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eb5…99fabacked Yes62c1,425$883 inLost-$883.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…ab4dbacked No38c1,425$541 inWon+$883.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6079…4943backed Yes62c1,075$666 inLost-$666.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x797f…7b23backed No38c1,038$394 inWon+$643.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcde…f9d8backed No38c1,023$389 inWon+$634.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b07…ea56backed Yes62c1,023$634 inLost-$634.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x524c…c166backed No38c768.14$292 inWon+$476.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41f9…84e6backed Yes41c599.99$243 inLost-$243.420642.7%88 W · 118 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd74e…25cabacked Yes62c542.54$336 inLost-$336.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed No59c505.39$301 inWon+$204.743145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a47…fcf3backed No45c305.56$138 inWon+$167.57445.9%34 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b50…6d09backed Yes62c268.58$167 inLost-$166.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3901…0117backed No38c268.58$102 inWon+$166.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d83…d1dabacked Yes55c250$138 inLost-$137.52437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x44dd…34f9backed Yes62c238.72$148 inLost-$148.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…6c45backed No38c238.72$91 inWon+$148.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes34c214.44$74 inLost-$73.642,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5396…84e3backed No76c142.06$108 inWon+$34.1922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8628…24dabacked Yes54c55.56$30 inLost-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81fa…c4d6backed Yes42c37.84$16 inLost-$15.844330.2%13 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed No57c35$20 inWon+$15.051855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No47c24.18$11 inWon+$12.812065%13 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3118…df9fbacked No42c24$10 inWon+$13.922100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+352.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes58c18.44$11 inLost-$10.69825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.