Bundesliga · resolved market
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x298e99f752917f593e7c2f1fab4ab6cb64c437695a5c6aa87f5913479e0ecadc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2d…2bc4backed Under | 1c | 2,460$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 2,277$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.27 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 21c | 924.21$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.68 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 24c | 916.84$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.33 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 80c | 625.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.25 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 22c | 354.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 79c | 354$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 21c | 262.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 20c | 190$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d6…dafcbacked Under | 23c | 144$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ee…8e12backed Over | 77c | 144$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 20c | 130.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Under | 19c | 71.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…8320backed Over | 71c | 70.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 19c | 67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 25c | 61.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 1.5this page
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5Under won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-1.5)Eintracht Braunschweig won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-2.5)Eintracht Braunschweig won
- Spread: Eintracht Braunschweig (-1.5)1. FC Nürnberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.