Cricket · resolved market
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand - Who wins the toss?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29b8f484383bc2b8b21e89a57d4519f05db3f9dc4531334cffe1087d72138d95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New Zealandof India, New Zealand
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,356 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed India | 9c | 2,336$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5b…316cbacked India | 66c | 610.02$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb0…fafcbacked New Zealand | 52c | 117.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…4fcabacked New Zealand | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed India | 48c | 102.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked New Zealand | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…dc0fbacked New Zealand | 51c | 97.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…5ef9backed India | 51c | 59.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed New Zealand | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…28dbbacked New Zealand | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed India | 51c | 37.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 184 | 19.6%36 W · 148 L | -25.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…450ebacked India | 51c | 27.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2c…f012backed India | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed New Zealand | 49c | 25.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed New Zealand | 45c | 25.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9af1…df2cbacked New Zealand | 49c | 20.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6c…0b29backed India | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…f863backed India | 52c | 19.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand - Who wins the toss?this page
- T20 World Cup: India vs New ZealandIndia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.