CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Muttley Crew (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #2 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29b954f578b0ef0e9b54546125af2bc3c968e15a9ac75074801919620a383f56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SemperFi Esportsof SemperFi Esports, Muttley Crew
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,546 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc63…2573backed Muttley Crew | 12c | 1,506$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed SemperFi Esports | 78c | 1,220$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.28 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…520abacked SemperFi Esports | 69c | 1,062$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.27 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Muttley Crew | 16c | 840.85$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.45 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Muttley Crew | 11c | 795.53$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.93 | 217 | 37.3%81 W · 136 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Muttley Crew | 20c | 565.12$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.02 | 1,423 | 33.6%478 W · 945 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Muttley Crew | 12c | 504.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Muttley Crew | 12c | 399.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2,527 | 43.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L | +42.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec5d…11d5backed Muttley Crew | 9c | 374.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 23cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Muttley Crew | 28c | 243.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…dc1fbacked Muttley Crew | 31c | 205.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked Muttley Crew | 23c | 193.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Muttley Crew | 9c | 178.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 1,087 | 31.9%347 W · 740 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Muttley Crew | 32c | 173.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Muttley Crew | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade6…a890backed Muttley Crew | 15c | 129.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…20a5backed SemperFi Esports | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…a123backed Muttley Crew | 17c | 117.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Muttley Crew | 16c | 90.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Muttley Crew | 41c | 70.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 432 | 39.1%169 W · 263 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Muttley Crew | 17c | 65.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed SemperFi Esports | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 392 | 45.9%180 W · 212 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e9…c11abacked Muttley Crew | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed SemperFi Esports | 79c | 42.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff95…3c1cbacked SemperFi Esports | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.1wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Muttley Crew | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Muttley Crew (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #2 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Muttley Crew - Map 1 WinnerMuttley Crew won
- Map 3: Odd/Even Total Kills?Even won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.