Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29be92b1f8d8846469e78eda4d9e64055c167f478d4362395f950b86fa66f25a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 4c | 757.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 562.54$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 19c | 299.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 15c | 275.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 265.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 76c | 262.5$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 261.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 257.67$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…911cbacked Yes | 16c | 237.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 72c | 236.28$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 228.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 197.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 158.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 79c | 149.98$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 139.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 126.79$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 17c | 113.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 24c | 93.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 14c | 84.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 18c | 74.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 16c | 73.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 43c | 69.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 66.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 80c | 53.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 35c | 51.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 77c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed No | 69c | 30.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 24.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298f…c504backed No | 78c | 20.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 78c | 20.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…747ebacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.