Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x933de9abdff6bc79f99e85223f30dcfb3633beba86a981e9669ab8db3bfeaa46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d7…f207backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 28c | 581.16$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.77 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 4c | 510$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 77c | 466.3$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.11 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 372.78$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 73c | 291.53$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 286.2$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.41 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 38c | 243$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 231.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 25c | 198.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 166.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…9d0dbacked Yes | 13c | 145$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 144.28$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 79c | 140.76$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 134.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 129.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 118.16$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 73c | 113.37$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 111$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388a…9a69backed Yes | 32c | 109.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 17c | 106$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 29c | 105.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 76c | 92.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 87.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 72c | 84.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 17c | 82.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 26c | 81.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…d802backed Yes | 29c | 76.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…ab83backed Yes | 22c | 76.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed Yes | 27c | 73.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 17c | 73.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…e685backed Yes | 15c | 72.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 26c | 65.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 64.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed Yes | 31c | 63.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 79c | 63.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 62.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 26c | 61.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 59.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa0be…1b20backed Yes | 25c | 55.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 27c | 49.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 30c | 48.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 70c | 40.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6572…3968backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 28c | 36.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed Yes | 29c | 36.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 72c | 36.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 43c | 35.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed Yes | 33c | 35.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 70c | 34.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 75c | 33.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 32c | 33.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 78c | 29.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 69c | 26.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 73c | 25.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 80c | 22.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…33c8backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 78c | 18.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 78c | 18.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…957ebacked No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…337abacked No | 75c | 16.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…4f99backed No | 76c | 15.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 77c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 76c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 79c | 13.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 80c | 13.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.63 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9726…1b0dbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.