Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76e626b0ed23efa4ec7ba6e03e916e12951ddc3cd20afdc8fbee31feb6130a47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 61c | 499.52$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.86 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 432.05$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 4c | 379.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 52c | 360.39$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.27 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 56c | 329.98$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.49 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 41c | 283.86$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.59 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 74c | 259.59$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 46c | 254.64$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.83 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 67c | 251.87$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.83 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.12 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 247.8$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.22 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 39c | 230.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 210.3$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 195.8$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…a6d9backed Yes | 75c | 191.01$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 188.27$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 175.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4791…3b1abacked No | 6c | 175.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 23c | 174.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 14c | 160.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 41c | 140.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 34c | 139.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.42 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…911cbacked Yes | 61c | 138$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…f0f0backed No | 9c | 134.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 132$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 121.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 77c | 111.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 44c | 111$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 56c | 110.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 47c | 102.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 27c | 99.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 55c | 99.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 25c | 99.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 38c | 98.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed No | 64c | 96.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…5eb7backed No | 64c | 88.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 63c | 86.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 31c | 83.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 35c | 81.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 46c | 81.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 52c | 81.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 24c | 80.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 57c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed No | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 63c | 79.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 50c | 77.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 51c | 74.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed Yes | 53c | 71.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed Yes | 53c | 63.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 55c | 61.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 32c | 61.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc08e…9594backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 66c | 59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 57.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 46c | 56.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 56c | 56.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 58c | 51.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 46c | 50.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3620…f733backed No | 67c | 48.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 34c | 45.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 35c | 45.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…63cabacked Yes | 53c | 44.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 73c | 40.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 33c | 39.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1936…a066backed Yes | 39c | 38.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9e44backed No | 62c | 37.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 53c | 37.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 33c | 37.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 69c | 36.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…3767backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 64c | 34.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 33.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 46c | 33.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…6903backed Yes | 36c | 33.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 72c | 33.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 40c | 33.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 46c | 32.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 63c | 31.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…105fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2206…2a95backed No | 44c | 31.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 51c | 29.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 70c | 29.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5524…6592backed Yes | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…0c71backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 54c | 26.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 50c | 26.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 44c | 25.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x688a…2d1cbacked No | 49c | 25.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 24.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.