TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,961
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,646

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,961 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x100a…c6cebacked No1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212554.3%11 W · 244 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No61c499.52$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.8619259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c432.05$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No4c379.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7636819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed No52c360.39$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.2712154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes56c329.98$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.4918740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes41c283.86$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.591,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes74c259.59$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0949547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No46c254.64$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.8358349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No67c251.87$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.8333567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1233058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No67c247.8$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.221,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No39c230.8$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes42c210.3$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.927,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes51c195.8$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.24,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3119…a6d9backed Yes75c191.01$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.85887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes61c188.27$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.556,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No31c175.97$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4791…3b1abacked No6c175.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.562552%13 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No23c174.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2539810.8%43 W · 355 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No14c160.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8560121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98f7…a036backed Yes50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.343630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No41c140.27$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.981,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Yes34c139.27$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.4231868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5911…911cbacked Yes61c138$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.21757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+135.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed No9c134.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12419.8%4 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes39c132$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes32c121.22$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.298,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b25…51eebacked Yes77c111.08$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.976753.7%36 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes44c111$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.291,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes56c110.31$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.961,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes47c102.81$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.31,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes27c99.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9943525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes55c99.94$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9732444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf845…7c31backed No25c99.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.918957.3%51 W · 38 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3949…dffdbacked No38c98.77$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.954148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aea…2ab8backed No64c96.96$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.365431.5%17 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-43.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9e87…5eb7backed No64c88.4$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.572245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes63c86.97$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9749941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes31c83.94$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.136835.3%24 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb397…283abacked Yes35c81.29$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.17233.3%24 W · 48 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1203…3947backed No46c81.24$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5915639.7%62 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes52c81.01$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.491,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No24c80.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.284,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes57c80$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6537644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e44…eec7backed No32c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.63633.3%12 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No63c79.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5061760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes50c77.34$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0342857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38ff…1acdbacked No51c74.47$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384748.9%23 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd96b…7f20backed Yes53c71.12$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.273030%9 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c65$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.93,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…ff74backed Yes53c63.31$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.025255.8%29 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa654…58c9backed Yes55c61.52$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.525343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes32c61.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.561,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc08e…9594backed Yes40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.11650%8 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No66c59$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9432760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes30c57.92$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.541,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed No46c56.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.241,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc921…d6f3backed No56c56.55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7415339.9%61 W · 92 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a3…b156backed Yes55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.553148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x129c…0085backed Yes58c51.34$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.345251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes46c50.1$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.055,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3241733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3620…f733backed No67c48.92$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.761346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6036…cc41backed Yes34c45.7$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.129333.3%31 W · 62 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes35c45.42$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5465043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d18…63cabacked Yes53c44.09$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.922142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No73c40.26$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3947442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.166141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes33c39.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6456721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1936…a066backed Yes39c38.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.06475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+81.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33b3…9e44backed No62c37.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.351520%3 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-66%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No53c37.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes33c37.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8113430.6%41 W · 93 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6987…846bbacked Yes55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.369040%36 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x483d…65f2backed No69c36.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.864344.2%19 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55f5…3767backed Yes47c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.62161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x913a…a3e7backed Yes64c34.43$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.253767.6%25 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+32.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No55c33.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.73,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No46c33.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3914961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3859…6903backed Yes36c33.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.351833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+40.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No72c33.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2429056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb897…7007backed Yes40c33.13$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8811038.2%42 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes46c32.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4314544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc82c…c866backed Yes63c31.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.537639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ff…105fbacked Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.25450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+69%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2206…2a95backed No44c31.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1116738.9%65 W · 102 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.554966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No51c29.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1111925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe4f0…0bd2backed No70c29.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.569250%46 W · 46 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5524…6592backed Yes55c29.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.09475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb3…0c71backed Yes70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.57862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be0…c37dbacked No56c28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.719058.9%112 W · 78 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes54c26.79$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.321,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x288a…19f4backed No50c26.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.044946.9%23 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No44c25.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5132157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x688a…2d1cbacked No49c25.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No64c24.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.941,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.