Mls · resolved market
Will New England Revolution vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29c323ea80ab0ec20f43d1db043988677c09bea08fe73dd72d82f45fe693be2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,392 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 73c | 4,309$3,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.49 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,737$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.44 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 950.13$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.47 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 649$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.92 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 642.41$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.6 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…4ea1backed Yes | 26c | 615.15$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 484.03$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.85 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 26c | 409.22$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Yes | 27c | 345.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 27c | 285.61$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 29c | 180.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 8c | 172$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked No | 73c | 149.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 27c | 103.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 75c | 95.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 68c | 94.76$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 34c | 91.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 20c | 88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 27c | 80.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Yes | 31c | 78.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…77dfbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 25c | 64.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 26c | 46.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Yes | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…13a3backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed No | 72c | 24.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 73c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 80c | 18.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New England Revolution vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-03-15?No won
- Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.