Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a00d2d285308e5275d0615a8a39e970b5d2de7c038bdfced687423da75c868c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Nigma Galaxy, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Nigma Galaxy | 8c | 1,361$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.31 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 58c | 1,315$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.31 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 41c | 1,116$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.56 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Pipsqueak+4 | 43c | 350$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.5 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 350$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 223.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8478…4355backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 108.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 103.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Nigma Galaxy | 45c | 96.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f2…07f8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 70c | 71.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 59c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Nigma Galaxy | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.