Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaea87406816e11194f12b180c8b650ffe7b84b4a2ab60fd5ba110e1c6cd090d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Nigma Galaxy, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 1,308$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.83 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac70…2d8dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 48c | 1,050$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.41 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Pipsqueak+4 | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 70c | 284.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.23 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Pipsqueak+4 | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Pipsqueak+4 | 70c | 160.16$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 62c | 105.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Pipsqueak+4 | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Nigma Galaxy | 39c | 78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 60.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7eebbacked Nigma Galaxy | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 62c | 30.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Pipsqueak+4 | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…653ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7e1fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 22.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2b…51c2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.